94% — Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in September 2026
Leader: Above 0.3% at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 14 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:32:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates a 43% chance that the Consumer Price Index will increase more than 0.4% month-over-month in September 2026. The current assessment reflects recent inflation data from earlier in 2026, with related contracts showing varying probabilities for different CPI thresholds in April—the 0.4% barrier sits between the 82¢ price (suggesting ~82% odds) and lower thresholds priced higher. The main drivers are the trajectory of price pressures through summer 2026 and whether sticky inflation components persist or continue moderating. The September 2026 CPI release, scheduled for early October 2026, will be the decisive moment that resolves this contract. Markets are pricing in a roughly even split between months with CPI gains above 0.4% versus those at or below that level.

Key factors:
- Recent April 2026 CPI data shows 0.4% MoM rises priced at 82¢ on Kalshi, providing a near-term baseline for inflation momentum
- Energy and food price volatility through summer months typically influences whether monthly CPI prints exceed 0.4%, with seasonal factors affecting transportation and utility costs
- The 43% probability implies markets expect roughly 57% odds of CPI rising 0.4% or less in September, suggesting modest disinflationary bias six months out
- Core inflation trends and wage growth data between now and September will determine whether price pressures accelerate or decelerate toward autumn
- The September 2026 CPI report (released early October) is the single catalyst that will definitively resolve this contract

Contracts:
- Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in May 2026?: Above 0.3% — 94¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 19%)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in May 2026?: Above 0.4% — 82¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 51%)
- Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in October 2026?: Above -0.1% — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will CPI rise more than -0.1% in June 2026?: Above -0.1% — 76¢ Kalshi $852 (weight 8%)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?: Above 0.2% — 58¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in June 2026?: Above 0.0% — 50¢ Kalshi $299 (weight 3%)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in June 2026?: Above 0.1% — 41¢ Kalshi $118 (weight 1%)
- Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5% — 22¢ Kalshi $972 (weight 9%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.539Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cpi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20CPI%20rise%20more%20than%200.4%25%20in%20September%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev