96% — Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in May
Leader: Above 0.0% at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 17 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-10 02:45:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market prices the probability that core Consumer Price Index inflation will rise by more than 0.3% in May 2026 at 96%, indicating traders view a monthly increase above that threshold as highly likely. The elevated probability reflects recent inflation trends and the market's assessment of underlying price pressures from labor costs, supply chains, and demand conditions. May's CPI data, typically released in early June, will be the primary resolution event. Traders are pricing in sustained monthly increases; the 43-cent price on the 0.3% threshold versus 13 cents on 0.4% suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether gains exceed 0.4%, though both scenarios are considered probable. This framework allows participants to bet on inflation's intensity and whether monthly momentum remains elevated or begins moderating.

Key factors:
- Core CPI's monthly trajectory in recent releases—if April came in above 0.3%, May's pricing reflects expectation of similar momentum
- Labor market tightness and wage growth rates, which historically drive core inflation excluding food and energy
- Recent Federal Reserve policy stance and market expectations about interest rate paths, which influence inflation expectations
- The gap between the 0.3% contract (43¢) and 0.4% contract (13¢) indicates meaningful probability mass between 0.3–0.4% and lower confidence above 0.4%
- Supply-side factors including goods and shelter costs, which comprise the largest components of core CPI

Contracts:
- Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?: Above 0.0% — 96¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 1%)
- Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?: Above 0.1% — 90¢ Kalshi $507 (weight 12%)
- Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in August?: Above 0.1% — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in July?: Above 0.0% — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in August?: Above 0.0% — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in August?: Above 0.2% — 55¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in July?: Above 0.1% — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in July?: Above 0.2% — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-10T02:20:48.870Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cpicore
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20CPI%20Core%20rise%20more%20than%200.3%25%20in%20May
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev