72% — Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026 Leader: Above 2.6% at 72% · Kalshi 72% · 15 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:54 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is pricing a 95% likelihood that core inflation for the 12-month period ending May 2026 will exceed 3.0% annually. Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy prices, making it a closely watched measure of underlying inflation trends. The high probability reflects market confidence that inflation will remain elevated despite Federal Reserve efforts to control it. Key drivers include recent monthly inflation readings, wage growth persistence, and expectations for monetary policy through mid-2026. The main catalyst for resolution will be the May 2026 CPI release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which publishes data roughly mid-month. Markets are pricing lower probability for higher thresholds (2.8% and above command only 30 cents), suggesting consensus expects core inflation in the 3.0-3.5% range rather than substantially higher. Key factors: - Recent 12-month core CPI readings as of April 2026, which form the baseline for the May year-over-year comparison - Monthly core inflation momentum through May 2026—whether new inflation is accelerating, stable, or decelerating relative to year-ago levels - Federal Reserve policy stance and rate decisions through May 2026, which directly influence inflation expectations and real economic activity - Wage growth and labor market tightness, which feed into pricing power and core service inflation - The May 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release date (typically mid-June), which will definitively resolve the contract Contracts: - Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.6% — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.2% — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.8% — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 2.8% — 57¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 4%) - Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.0% — 51¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 1%) - Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.9% — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.2% — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 2.9% — 11¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 70%) - ... and 7 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.618Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cpicoreyoy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20rate%20of%20core%20CPI%20inflation%20be%20above%203.0%25%20for%20the%20year%20ending%20in%20May%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev