97% — Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in May 2026
Leader: Above 2.0% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 18 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:16:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 95% probability that core CPI inflation will exceed 2.2% for the year ending November 2026. The high probability reflects recent inflation readings that have remained sticky above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, even as headline inflation has moderated. The market implies traders expect inflation to persist above this threshold through mid-2026, driven by factors like wage growth, shelter costs, and service-sector pricing. Key uncertainty centers on whether the Fed will cut rates further and how consumer demand evolves. The upcoming July 2026 CPI report—due mid-August—will be critical, as it provides the first hard data directly affecting contract resolution. Traders are pricing in roughly 80% confidence for above 2.8% inflation through summer, but only 10% confidence for sustained elevation above 2.8% into August, suggesting expectations for some disinflation by then.

Key factors:
- Core CPI for the 12 months ending May 2026 will be officially reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in mid-June 2026
- Current market pricing shows declining confidence in higher inflation thresholds over time (95% for 2.2%, 75% for 2.5%, 60% for 2.6%), indicating expected disinflation trajectory
- Shelter and owner's equivalent rent represent roughly 40% of core CPI weighting and remain sensitive to mortgage rates and housing supply dynamics
- The Federal Reserve's policy path and unemployment rate between now and May 2026 will materially affect wage growth and service-sector inflation
- Contract volumes are concentrated at the 2.2% threshold ($24 24h volume), while higher thresholds show minimal trading liquidity, suggesting potential pricing uncertainty above that level

Contracts:
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.0% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 2.0% — 97¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 15%)
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 2.8% — 97¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 14%)
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.5% — 96¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 30%)
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.4% — 96¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 15%)
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 2.3% — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 3.3% — 79¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in August 2026?: Above 2.1% — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in November 2026?: Above 2.7% — 63¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:50.975Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cpicoreyoy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20rate%20of%20core%20CPI%20inflation%20be%20above%203.0%25%20for%20the%20year%20ending%20in%20May%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev