95% — Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
Leader: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 7 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-11 03:52:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that the Consumer Price Index for urban consumers will exceed 334.400 for June 2026 (using 1982-84 as a baseline). The high 96% probability suggests traders believe inflation remains elevated. The specific CPI level needed depends on the trajectory of price growth in the coming months—further price increases would push the outcome more likely, while disinflation would lower it. The June 2026 CPI release, typically published in early July, will definitively resolve this contract. The spread across contracts (ranging from 96% above 334.400 to 32% above 334.800) indicates uncertainty about whether inflation will settle in the mid-334s or push higher.

Key factors:
- Historical CPI data from late 2025 through early June 2026 will determine whether the index reaches or exceeds the 334.400 threshold
- The June 2026 CPI release date (early July 2026) provides the definitive resolution point; no estimation or projection affects the outcome
- Month-over-month inflation changes in the 2-3 months preceding June will be the primary drivers of whether this level is reached
- Energy and commodity price movements during spring 2026 could materially affect the final CPI figure
- The 64-percentage-point spread between the 96% contract (above 334.400) and the 32% contract (above 334.800) shows traders expect the final reading to cluster in a narrow band but are uncertain whether it lands in the lower or upper portion

Contracts:
- Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.400?: Above 334.400 — 95¢ Kalshi $310 (weight 3%)
- Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.500?: Above 334.500 — 85¢ Kalshi $788 (weight 8%)
- Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.600?: Above 334.600 — 61¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 15%)
- Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.700?: Above 334.700 — 35¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 56%)
- Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.800?: Above 334.800 — 31¢ Kalshi $455 (weight 5%)
- Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 334.900?: Above 334.900 — 12¢ Kalshi $491 (weight 5%)
- Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: U.S. city average, All items, not seasonally adjusted, 1982–84=100 for June 2026 be above 335.000?: Above 335.000 — 10¢ Kalshi $681 (weight 7%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-11T03:20:49.886Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cpindex
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Consumer%20Price%20Index%20for%20All%20Urban%20Consumers
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev