97% — Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in April 2026 Leader: Above 4.0% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 18 contracts · $20K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:16 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 95% probability that the Consumer Price Index will show inflation above 3.9% for the 12-month period ending in April 2026. The high probability reflects recent inflation data and trajectory; markets are pricing in only a 5% chance that inflation falls to 3.9% or below by that endpoint. The main drivers are current CPI readings, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and labor market dynamics. Contract pricing shows declining conviction at higher thresholds—only 3 cents for above 4.0%—suggesting traders expect inflation in the 3.6–3.9% range rather than materially higher. The final April 2026 CPI release, scheduled for May 2026, will definitively resolve this question. Until then, traders are monitoring monthly inflation data, Fed communications, and economic growth signals for clues about whether disinflation continues or reverses. Key factors: - The 3-month trailing average of monthly CPI increases and the year-over-year inflation rate as of April 2026 will mechanically determine the outcome - Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and forward guidance between now and April 2026 will influence inflation expectations and actual price pressures - Labor market conditions, wage growth, and employment data are correlated with inflation persistence and will be tracked as leading indicators - Commodity prices, energy costs, and global supply chain conditions remain material variables affecting consumer price levels - The published CPI report for April 2026 (expected May 2026) is the single data release that will resolve this contract with certainty Contracts: - Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.0% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 4.0% — 97¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 31%) - Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 3.9% — 97¢ Kalshi $111 (weight 1%) - Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.1% for the year ending in May 2026?: Above 4.1% — 90¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%) - Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.6% — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.8% — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.2% — 64¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.0% — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?: Above 3.3% — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:12.903Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cpiyoy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20rate%20of%20CPI%20inflation%20be%20above%203.9%25%20for%20the%20year%20ending%20in%20April%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev