15% — Will St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots win the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship Kalshi 15% · 7 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:59 UTC Why this matters: St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots are assigned a 20% implied probability of winning the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship, making them the fourth-favorite among the tournament's six teams. This probability reflects market assessments of the team's squad strength, recent performance history, and competitive depth relative to stronger favorites like Trinbago Knight Riders (39%) and Guyana Amazon Warriors (29%). The Patriots' championship odds are primarily driven by their roster composition and track record in the CPL, with movement likely tied to player acquisitions during the offseason and any injuries to key performers. The tournament itself will begin in August 2026 and conclude with the final in September, providing the definitive resolution of these probabilities through actual match results and playoff performance. Key factors: - St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots currently trade at 12¢ on Kalshi while Trinbago Knight Riders trade at 39¢, indicating the market views them as roughly one-third as likely to win the championship - The team's 20% probability places them fourth among six CPL franchises, between Barbados Royals (13%) and Guyana Amazon Warriors (29%) - No recent trades, signings, or roster moves are reflected in available data as of June 2026; squad composition changes during the offseason will materially affect their odds - The 2026 CPL season is scheduled to begin in August, with the championship final occurring in September, allowing two months for team preparation and potential betting-relevant developments - Trading volume on the Patriots contract is currently zero over 24 hours, suggesting limited recent market activity and potentially wide bid-ask spreads around the current 20% level Contracts: - Will St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots win the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship?: St. Kitts and Nevis Patriots — 20¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 74%) - Will Guyana Amazon Warriors win the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship?: Guyana Amazon Warriors — 24¢ Kalshi $260 (weight 9%) - Will Trinbago Knight Riders win the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship?: Trinbago Knight Riders — 27¢ Kalshi $168 (weight 6%) - Will Barbados Royals win the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship?: Barbados Royals — 7¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 3%) - Will Antigua And Barbuda Falcons win the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship?: Antigua And Barbuda Falcons — 8¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 3%) - Will Jamaica Kingsmen win the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship?: Jamaica Kingsmen — 9¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 3%) - Will St. Lucia Kings win the 2026 Caribbean Premier League championship?: St. Lucia Kings — 9¢ Kalshi $70 (weight 2%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:52.004Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cpl Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20St.%20Kitts%20and%20Nevis%20Patriots%20win%20the%202026%20Caribbean%20Premier%20League%20championship Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev