91% — Will SOFR be above 4.25 by end of Q4 2026 Leader: Above 3.00% at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 9 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:35:05 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability represents a 91% chance that the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) will remain above 3.00% through the end of December 2026. The market is pricing in a high likelihood of rates staying elevated, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive policy longer than historical norms suggest or cut only modestly from current levels. The main driver is inflation persistence—if price pressures remain stubborn, rate cuts will be delayed or smaller; conversely, recession concerns or rapid disinflation would increase the probability of deeper cuts below 3.00%. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions at each scheduled meeting through December represent the primary catalyst, with monthly inflation data (CPI/PCE releases) and employment reports directly influencing Fed guidance. Market expectations will shift most sharply around major economic data releases and FOMC communications that signal rate-path shifts. Key factors: - Current SOFR levels and recent Fed action establish the baseline; SOFR would need to fall roughly 150–175 basis points from typical 2026 levels to break below 3.00% by year-end - Inflation trajectory through Q4 2026—particularly PCE and core CPI—will determine whether the Fed maintains, pauses, or cuts rates; disinflation would increase the probability SOFR falls below 3.00% - Labor market strength and unemployment trends; persistent job growth typically supports higher rates, while a sharp rise in unemployment would pressure SOFR downward - Futures market pricing for Fed funds rates at end-2026 currently implies SOFR remaining in the 3.00–3.75% range under consensus scenarios - Geopolitical shocks, credit events, or financial instability could force emergency rate cuts that would dramatically increase the odds SOFR falls below 3.00% Contracts: - Will SOFR be above 3.00 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 3.00% — 91¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will SOFR be above 3.25 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 3.25% — 88¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will SOFR be above 3.50 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 3.50% — 85¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%) - Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 3.75% — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will SOFR be above 4.00 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 4.00% — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will SOFR be above 4.25 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 4.25% — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will SOFR be above 4.50 by end of Q4 2026?: Above 4.50% — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will SOFR be above 3.75 by end of Q2 2026?: Above 3.75% — 10¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 100%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:48.862Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/creditc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20SOFR%20be%20above%204.25%20by%20end%20of%20Q4%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev