87% — Will the price of Creed Aventus be above $300 in 2026
Leader: Above $300 at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 02:50:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 17% chance that Creed Aventus, one of the most expensive fragrances on the market, will trade above $300 by the end of 2026. The low probability reflects fragrance pricing stability — Creed Aventus typically retails between $200–$250, and even in secondary markets rarely exceeds $300 except in limited or discontinued batches. The main upward pressure would come from extreme scarcity or significant inflation across the luxury goods sector; downward pressure stems from steady market supply and consumer price sensitivity. The resolution will be determined by checking verified retail and secondary-market prices in late 2026, particularly whether limited editions or regional pricing variations push above the threshold. Market liquidity remains modest, suggesting limited institutional participation in this niche prediction.

Key factors:
- Current Creed Aventus retail prices typically range $200–$250; secondary market rarely exceeds $300 outside discontinued lots
- Luxury fragrance prices have shown relative stability over 2024–2026, with inflation not substantially lifting premium segments
- The wider market structure shows declining probability at higher price tiers ($310 at 8%, $340 at 4%), indicating skepticism about sustained price escalation
- Resolution depends on identifying the official transaction price source (retail, authenticated secondary market, or specific region), which remains undefined
- 24h trading volume on the $300 contract ($19) is highest among the price tiers, suggesting active debate but no clear directional consensus

Contracts:
- Will the price of Creed Aventus be above $300 in 2026?: Above $300 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the price of Creed Aventus be above $310 in 2026?: Above $310 — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the price of Creed Aventus be above $320 in 2026?: Above $320 — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the price of Creed Aventus be above $330 in 2026?: Above $330 — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the price of Creed Aventus be above $340 in 2026?: Above $340 — 39¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Will the price of Creed Aventus be above $350 in 2026?: Above $350 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:48.940Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/creed
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20price%20of%20Creed%20Aventus%20be%20above%20%24300%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev