96% — Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026 Leader: Aalo Atomics at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 8 contracts · $167 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 02:44:24 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract estimates a 77% probability that at least one nuclear power company will achieve criticality—the point at which a nuclear reactor sustains a self-sustaining chain reaction—by August 2026. Criticality represents a major developmental milestone, typically preceding full commercial operation by months. The high probability reflects recent progress in advanced reactor projects, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs) and next-generation designs under active construction. However, nuclear projects historically face regulatory delays, engineering challenges, and schedule slips. The main factors supporting this outcome are publicly announced construction timelines and regulatory approvals already granted; downside risk comes from technical issues or permitting complications. The contract resolves definitively in August 2026 when companies either announce criticality achievement or the deadline passes. Key factors: - At least one company (TerraPower, X-energy, NuScale, or equivalent player) must publicly announce achieving criticality with a reactor; this is a verifiable, announced event - Current construction timelines for leading SMR projects show multiple facilities in final assembly phases as of mid-2026, creating a factual basis for the 77% assessment - Regulatory approval status for specific reactors in the U.S. and other jurisdictions directly determines feasibility—this is documented and trackable - Historical nuclear project delays of 6-24 months are common; any engineering setback or inspection finding in the next 3 months materially changes resolution odds - The distinction between 'criticality' and 'full operation' is precise: criticality alone does not require full licensing completion, making August 2026 achievable if construction stays on schedule Contracts: - Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?: Aalo Atomics — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?: Atomic Alchemy — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?: Oklo — 13¢ Kalshi $136 (weight 81%) - Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?: Radiant Industries — 7¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 19%) - Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?: Terrestrial Energy — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?: Last Energy — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?: Deep Fission — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?: Natura Resources — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T02:20:50.835Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/criticality Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20nuclear%20power%20companies%20will%20achieve%20criticality%20before%20Aug%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev