32% — Croatia vs. Ghana
Polymarket 32% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:16:01 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the expected likelihood that Croatia will defeat Ghana in an upcoming match. The 31% aggregate masks a significant 22-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi contracts showing much lower confidence in a Croatian win (13%) compared to Polymarket (35%). The discrepancy suggests traders may be weighing different information sets or applying different methodologies. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head history, squad composition, and any roster changes or injuries closer to match day. The resolution will occur when the match is played; the current market prices should adjust as game day approaches and any late-breaking team news emerges.

Key factors:
- 22-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests potential arbitrage opportunity or divergent information assumptions
- Top Kalshi contract prices Croatia at 25¢ while top Polymarket contracts range 21¢-58¢ depending on matchup, indicating liquidity concentration and venue-specific sentiment
- Ghana contract pricing at 30¢ and 45¢ on Polymarket implies roughly symmetric market expectations, though lower volume on Ghana-specific contracts ($0 24h vol) suggests less conviction
- Limited 24-hour volume on most contracts suggests thin liquidity; large trades could move prices significantly before match day
- Exact match date and final team lineups are critical inputs; any player unavailability or late roster changes could shift probabilities sharply

Contracts:
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia — 41¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)
- Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw (Croatia vs. Ghana) — 26¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 33%)

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/croatia-vs-ghana
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Croatia%20vs.%20Ghana
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev