31% — Crude Oil all time high by...
Leader: December 31 at 31% · Polymarket 31% · 3 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 22:18:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that crude oil will reach a new all-time high by December 31, 2026, with roughly one-third confidence. The current WTI benchmark stands well below its 2008 peak of $147, leaving substantial room for price appreciation. Market participants are pricing in moderate likelihood of this occurring within 7 months, though the runner-up outcome (September 30) trades at 25%, suggesting uncertainty about the timeline. The December contract's premium over nearer-term alternatives indicates traders view geopolitical or demand-side catalysts as more likely to emerge in the latter half of the year. Key drivers include OPEC+ production decisions, potential Middle East escalation, global demand recovery, and US dollar strength. There is no single scheduled trigger; instead, the resolution depends on accumulated macroeconomic conditions and energy supply dynamics through year-end.

Key factors:
- Current WTI crude price relative to the $147.27 2008 nominal peak and inflation-adjusted equivalents
- OPEC+ production quota compliance rates and announced output changes scheduled through Q4 2026
- Geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, particularly Middle East tensions and sanctions regimes
- Global GDP growth forecasts and industrial demand signals from China and Europe
- US dollar index trajectory, since crude is dollar-denominated and strong currency typically suppresses oil prices

Contracts:
- Crude Oil all time high by...?: December 31 — 31¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 50%)
- Crude Oil all time high by...?: September 30 — 22¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 41%)
- Crude Oil all time high by...?: June 30 — 6¢ Polymarket $401 (weight 9%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T21:20:09.292Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/crude-oil-all-time-high
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Crude%20Oil%20all%20time%20high%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev