20% — Crude Oil all time high by April 30
Polymarket 20% · 10 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 13:31:45 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that crude oil will reach a new all-time high before April 30, 2027. The current 27% level suggests traders view this as unlikely but plausible within the next 11 months. The main drivers are geopolitical supply disruptions and global demand trends—oil would need significant supply constraints or demand surges to break prior records, whereas improved supply or economic slowdown would lower odds. The resolution hinges on actual prices tracking against historical highs, with ongoing Middle East tensions, OPEC production decisions, and macroeconomic data from major consuming nations providing continuous signals until the deadline.

Key factors:
- Crude oil's previous all-time high (around $147 in July 2008) sets a fixed target; current prices and forward curves indicate the gap traders believe unlikely to close
- Geopolitical events affecting major producers (Middle East, Russia, or other supply centers) could rapidly shift odds upward within days
- US crude oil reserve levels shown in related contracts suggest tight supply conditions, which would support higher prices if demand remains steady
- Global recession or demand destruction would mechanically reduce probability, whereas sustained economic growth in China and India could support it
- The 11-month timeframe allows for seasonal and cyclical variation, but no single scheduled event determines outcome—odds depend on accumulated data releases and market developments

Contracts:
- Bitcoin all time high by ___?: December 31, 2026 — 7¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 45%)
- Bitcoin all time high by ___?: September 30, 2026 — 3¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 34%)
- Ethereum all time high by ___?: December 31, 2026 — 6¢ Polymarket $550 (weight 11%)
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $60 — 96¢ Polymarket $261 (weight 5%)
- Ethereum all time high by ___?: September 30, 2026 — 3¢ Polymarket $116 (weight 2%)
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $75 — 66¢ Polymarket $44 (weight 1%)
- XRP all time high by ___?: September 30, 2026 — 4¢ Polymarket $18 (weight 0%)
- Solana all time high by ___?: September 30, 2026 — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/crude-oil-all-time-high-april-30
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev