97% — Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $65
Leader: $63 at 97% · Polymarket 97% · 10 contracts · $281 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:12 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract reflects a 97% probability that crude oil will trade above $65 per barrel by the end of June 2026. The high confidence likely reflects current market conditions where oil is trading near or above this level, combined with the short time horizon (about 4 weeks) that limits major directional moves. The probability could shift if geopolitical tensions ease, production increases unexpectedly, or demand forecasts weaken—conversely, supply disruptions or escalating conflicts would support higher prices. The key catalysts include upcoming API and EIA inventory reports, any announcements from OPEC+ regarding production policy, and broader economic data affecting energy demand. The gap between the $65 contract (97%) and $75 contract (75%) suggests moderate uncertainty about sustained strength above current levels.

Key factors:
- Current WTI crude spot price relative to $65 strike and distance from contract expiration (~4 weeks)
- Recent OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates affecting near-term supply
- Geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East or other major producing regions
- USD strength and real-interest-rate expectations, which inversely affect commodity prices
- Weekly API and EIA inventory reports showing US crude stock builds or draws

Contracts:
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $63 — 97¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $60 — 97¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $56 — 97¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $65 — 96¢ Polymarket $5 (weight 2%)
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $55 — 96¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $70 — 94¢ Polymarket $55 (weight 19%)
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $75 — 86¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 1%)
- Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?: $80 — 79¢ Polymarket $11 (weight 4%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.601Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/crude-oil-cl-above-june
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Crude%20Oil%20(CL)%20above%20___%20end%20of%20June%3F%3A%20%2465
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev