46% — Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $60 Leader: ↓ $85 at 46% · Polymarket 46% · 9 contracts · $333K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:16 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents a 19% chance that crude oil will fall to $60 per barrel or below by the end of June 2026, roughly two months away. The low probability reflects current market pricing around $75-80 per barrel, which would require a significant decline to reach the target. Oil prices are primarily driven by supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and global demand forecasts. The main catalysts affecting this outcome include OPEC production decisions, U.S. economic data signaling recession risk, and any major supply shocks. Near-term inventory reports and central bank policy guidance will provide key signals about demand strength. The related contracts show markets price a $75 floor as highly likely (76¢) while larger declines face steeper odds, suggesting traders expect relative price stability or strength over the next 60 days. Key factors: - Crude oil must decline approximately 15-20% from typical current levels to reach $60, a move requiring either sustained demand destruction or unexpected supply surge - OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates directly influence supply-side constraints; any announced cuts support higher prices while increased output enables declines - U.S. economic growth data, manufacturing reports, and employment figures over May-June will signal demand trajectory; recession signals would increase downside probability - Geopolitical developments in major producing regions (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) can trigger supply shocks that counteract demand-driven price pressure - Implied volatility reflected in contract pricing shows $75 is priced as highly probable by end of June, limiting room for sharp declines without fundamental deterioration Contracts: - Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $85 — 46¢ Polymarket $19K (weight 6%) - Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $105 — 42¢ Polymarket $75K (weight 22%) - Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $80 — 26¢ Polymarket $23K (weight 7%) - Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $110 — 24¢ Polymarket $57K (weight 17%) - Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $115 — 18¢ Polymarket $18K (weight 5%) - Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $120 — 12¢ Polymarket $53K (weight 16%) - Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↑ $130 — 7¢ Polymarket $17K (weight 5%) - Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?: ↓ $70 — 6¢ Polymarket $21K (weight 6%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.724Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/crude-oil-cl-hit-june Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Crude%20Oil%20(CL)%20hit__%20by%20end%20of%20June%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%20%2460 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev