15% — Will crypto be regulated in the US?
Kalshi 15% · 2 contracts · $153 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-23 23:42:28 UTC

Contracts:
- Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027 — 15¢ Kalshi $139 (weight 91%)
- AI regulation by 2027?: By Jan 1, 2027 — 14¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 9%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:50.926Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/crypto-regulation
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20crypto%20be%20regulated%20in%20the%20US%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev