42% — Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026 Leader: Stellar Lumens (XLM) at 42% · Kalshi 42% · 10 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:18 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability represents traders' assessment that Bitcoin will finish 2026 with positive returns compared to its price at year-start. At 43%, Bitcoin is favored among the listed cryptocurrencies but remains below even odds. The current level reflects Bitcoin's 2026 performance so far—with the year more than one-third complete, traders are pricing in both realized gains to date and uncertainty around macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technical market dynamics through year-end. Factors pushing this probability higher include continued institutional adoption or favorable regulatory clarity; factors pushing it lower include broader market downturns, tightening monetary policy, or major technical resistance. The resolution date is December 31, 2026, when Bitcoin's year-to-date return will be finalized and compared against its January 1, 2026 opening price. Key factors: - Bitcoin's year-to-date price performance as of May 3, 2026 compared to its January 1, 2026 opening price, which directly influences the probability of positive annual returns - Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and interest rate trajectory through 2026, which historically correlate with cryptocurrency market movements - Regulatory announcements or legislative changes affecting cryptocurrency trading, custody, or taxation in major markets - Competitive performance of other listed cryptocurrencies in the multi-outcome contract, which may shift capital allocation between assets - Technical price levels and trading volume patterns that indicate strength or weakness in Bitcoin's uptrend through year-end Contracts: - Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Stellar Lumens (XLM) — 42¢ Kalshi $315 (weight 29%) - Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Ripple (XRP) — 20¢ Kalshi $154 (weight 14%) - Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Dogecoin (DOGE) — 16¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Bitcoin (BTC) — 14¢ Kalshi $383 (weight 35%) - Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Ethereum (ETH) — 13¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 4%) - Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Solana (SOL) — 12¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 5%) - Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Chainlink (LINK) — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?: Litecoin (LTC) — 9¢ Kalshi $111 (weight 10%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:50.749Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cryptoreturny Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20of%20these%20cryptocurrencies%20will%20have%20a%20positive%20return%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev