22% — Will Clair Obscur win the Misa Esports vs. Clair Obscur CS2 match Kalshi 22% · 10 contracts · $30 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:06 UTC Why this matters: This probability indicates a 29% chance that Clair Obscur defeats Misa Esports in an upcoming Counter-Strike 2 match. The current odds reflect Misa Esports as the favored team, suggesting they have a stronger competitive position or recent form. The probability could shift based on roster changes, recent map performance data, head-to-head records between the teams, and any announced tactical adjustments. The resolution will occur when the match concludes and a winner is determined. Trading volume on this specific contract is minimal, suggesting limited market interest or recent listing, which may affect price stability as more information becomes available or the match approaches. Key factors: - Misa Esports is priced as the clear favorite at approximately 71% implied win probability, indicating market confidence in their competitive edge - Counter-Strike 2 match outcomes are heavily influenced by recent team form, map pool preferences, and head-to-head records, none of which are specified in available market data - The related contracts show mixed pricing across different CS2 matchups, with some underdogs (Lavked at 75¢) priced much higher than others, suggesting significant uncertainty in competitive positioning - Zero or minimal 24-hour trading volume on most related contracts indicates thin liquidity and potential difficulty for traders to establish or exit positions at fair prices - The match outcome is binary and deterministic—it will be objectively resolved once played, leaving no room for ambiguity in settlement Contracts: - Will Misa Esports win the Misa Esports vs. Lavked CS2 match?: Misa Esports — 18¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 100%) - Will Young Ninjas win the Young Ninjas vs. G2 Ares CS2 match?: Young Ninjas — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will G2 Ares win the Young Ninjas vs. G2 Ares CS2 match?: G2 Ares — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Masked Regime win the Masked Regime vs. Ground Zero CS2 match?: Masked Regime — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ground Zero win the Masked Regime vs. Ground Zero CS2 match?: Ground Zero — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will DXA Esports win the DXA Esports vs. Ding Cuts CS2 match?: DXA Esports — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ding Cuts win the DXA Esports vs. Ding Cuts CS2 match?: Ding Cuts — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will RUSTEC win the RUSTEC vs. against All authority CS2 match?: RUSTEC — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.137Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cs2game Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Clair%20Obscur%20win%20the%20Misa%20Esports%20vs.%20Clair%20Obscur%20CS2%20match Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev