19% — Will MOUZ qualify for the playoffs at 2026 IEM Cologne
Kalshi 19% · 1 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 22:15:37 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects MOUZ's 42% chance of advancing past the group stage to the playoffs at IEM Cologne 2026. The market assessment appears calibrated around MOUZ's recent competitive standing relative to other tier-1 European and international teams. Key factors influencing this estimate include MOUZ's roster composition and form heading into the event, the strength of competing teams in their potential group, and historical performance at IEM tournaments. The actual group draw and final rosters—typically finalized in the weeks before the event—will likely shift this probability. Resolution depends on MOUZ's performance during the group stage matches, which would occur during the tournament's initial phase.

Key factors:
- MOUZ's current ranking and recent results in international competition relative to expected participants
- The composition of MOUZ's potential group—tougher competition lowers qualification odds, weaker groups raise them
- Recent roster changes or roster stability at MOUZ compared to historical performance trends
- Win rate and head-to-head records against likely group opponents in recent months
- IEM Cologne 2026 format and group stage structure—advancement threshold and number of teams progressing to playoffs

Contracts:
- Will Team Falcons qualify for the Grand Final at 2026 IEM Cologne?: Team Falcons — 19¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-21T19:20:51.807Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cs2qualifiers
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20MOUZ%20qualify%20for%20the%20playoffs%20at%202026%20IEM%20Cologne
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev