40% — Will Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited report Above 3.5% canadian tire store comparable sales growth in Q2 2026
Leader: Above -1% at 40% · Kalshi 40% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:30:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This metric tracks whether Canadian Tire's store-level comparable sales will exceed 3.5% growth in Q2 2026. The 83% probability reflects the market's assessment that this specific threshold is likely to be met. Markets are pricing in a scenario where comparable sales remain modestly positive or stronger, though the contract distribution shows meaningful uncertainty below the 3.5% target—roughly 55% of traders expect sales to exceed -1%, suggesting competitive pressures exist. The key driver is actual consumer spending and inventory management at Canadian Tire locations relative to the prior year period. Resolution depends entirely on Canadian Tire's Q2 2026 earnings report and management guidance, where they disclose comparable sales figures. This announcement will eliminate all uncertainty around whether this threshold was crossed.

Key factors:
- Market assigns 55% probability to sales exceeding -1%, indicating belief that negative comps are unlikely but traders are hedging against a sharp downturn
- The gap between the 83% headline and lower-threshold probabilities suggests concentrated uncertainty between 0% and 3.5% growth ranges
- No trading volume materializes on the 4%+ threshold (3¢ price, $216 daily volume), indicating minimal trader conviction above 4%
- Q2 2026 comparable sales will be officially reported in earnings disclosures; this is a binary, verifiable metric with no interpretation ambiguity
- Canadian retail environment and consumer discretionary spending trends between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026 will directly determine whether the threshold is met or missed

Contracts:
- Will Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited report Above -1% canadian tire store comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above -1% — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited report Above -0.5% canadian tire store comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above -0.5% — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited report Above 0% canadian tire store comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 0% — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited report Above 0.5% canadian tire store comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 0.5% — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited report Above 1% canadian tire store comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 1% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:50.544Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ctcq
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Canadian%20Tire%20Corporation%2C%20Limited%20report%20Above%203.5%25%20canadian%20tire%20store%20comparable%20sales%20growth%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev