41% — Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador
Leader: Ecuador at 41% · Polymarket 41% · 3 contracts · $960 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:53:20 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the odds that Côte d'Ivoire will outperform Ecuador in an upcoming World Cup match. The significant gap between Kalshi (11%) and Polymarket (37%) suggests traders disagree on how to weight Côte d'Ivoire's chances. Several unrelated contracts trading on Polymarket involve Côte d'Ivoire—including one on Trump administration immigration policy—which may be inflating the broader market estimate through contract confusion or cross-venue information leakage. Ecuador's strong historical World Cup participation and recent qualifying performance contrast with Côte d'Ivoire's less consistent international record. The match itself will provide the definitive resolution, though the current probability gap indicates traders are uncertain whether they're pricing similar events or have genuinely divergent assessments of relative team strength.

Key factors:
- Kalshi's Trump immigration contract (11¢) may be conflating an unrelated policy question with football performance
- Ecuador finished in World Cup qualifying ahead of most CONMEBOL competitors; Côte d'Ivoire's recent CAF qualifying record is less consistent
- Polymarket shows Ecuador winning 78¢ in a separate Ecuador vs. Curaçao matchup, suggesting confidence in Ecuadorian strength at this tournament
- Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire contracts show Côte d'Ivoire at 12¢ to win outright, implying low baseline expectations for the team
- The 26-percentage-point gap between exchanges suggests either information asymmetry, different trader sophistication, or contract design differences affecting price discovery

Contracts:
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador — 41¢ Polymarket $942 (weight 98%)
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw (Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador) — 33¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire — 28¢ Polymarket $17 (weight 2%)

Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cte-divoire-vs-ecuador
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=C%C3%B4te%20d'Ivoire%20vs.%20Ecuador
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev