26% — Will Tadej Pogacar win the green jersey at the 2026 Tour de France
Kalshi 26% · 6 contracts · $543 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-14 08:33:35 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Tadej Pogacar will win the green jersey—awarded to the Tour de France's most consistent stage finisher—at the 2026 race in July. Pogacar is primarily known as a general classification contender and mountain stage specialist rather than a sprinter, which makes winning the points jersey historically unlikely. The low 15% probability reflects that established sprinters like Jasper Philipsen (30¢) and Mads Pedersen (31¢) are heavily favored. Pogacar's chances would increase significantly if he races an aggressive stage-hunting strategy rather than protecting his overall position, or if top sprinters face mechanical issues or injury. The July 2026 Tour de France will definitively resolve this outcome, with stage results and Pogacar's tactical approach as the primary determinants.

Key factors:
- Pogacar's historical profile shows elite performance in mountain and time trial stages rather than bunch sprints, where green jersey points concentrate
- Leading sprinter Philipsen and Pedersen are priced at roughly 2x Pogacar's probability, indicating market consensus favors traditional sprint specialists
- Pogacar would need to consistently finish in top positions across diverse stage types; team tactics typically prioritize yellow jersey protection over points-stage aggression
- Only 9 days remain until the 2026 Tour de France begins, allowing limited time for injury or form changes to materially alter probabilities
- The green jersey requires averaging high placements across all 21 stages, not just occasional strong finishes

Contracts:
- Will Lenny Martinez win the polka dot jersey at the 2026 Tour de France?: Lenny Martinez — 7¢ Kalshi $360 (weight 66%)
- Will Mads Pedersen win the green jersey at the 2026 Tour de France?: Mads Pedersen — 57¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 19%)
- Will Jasper Philipsen win the green jersey at the 2026 Tour de France?: Jasper Philipsen — 5¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 7%)
- Will Tadej Pogacar win the polka dot jersey at the 2026 Tour de France?: Tadej Pogacar — 60¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 6%)
- Will Tim Merlier win the green jersey at the 2026 Tour de France?: Tim Merlier — 13¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 2%)
- Will Biniam Ghirmay win the green jersey at the 2026 Tour de France?: Biniam Ghirmay — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-14T08:20:51.579Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cyclingjersey
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tadej%20Pogacar%20win%20the%20green%20jersey%20at%20the%202026%20Tour%20de%20France
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev