32% — Will Filippo Ganna win Stage 1 in the 2026 Tour de France Kalshi 32% · 14 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 01:46:09 UTC Why this matters: This represents an estimated 9% chance that Filippo Ganna wins Stage 1 of the 2026 Tour de France, based on aggregated market data. The probability reflects that Ganna faces substantial competition from sprinters and time-trial specialists, with Tadej Pogacar and Kevin Vauquelin currently favored. Stage 1 format and weather conditions closer to July 2026 will clarify whether it suits Ganna's sprint capabilities or favors other riders. Ganna's current form, any pre-tour injuries or illness, and his team's tactical positioning will be critical determinants. The stage will resolve on approximately July 4, 2026, when results are finalized. Market pricing remains relatively illiquid, with minimal 24-hour trading volume on this specific contract, suggesting limited consensus about the likelihood. Key factors: - Stage 1 terrain and finish type in the 2026 Tour route design — whether it's a sprint finish where Ganna's speed applies or a hilly/time-trial format favoring other specialists - Ganna's competitive fitness and health status in early July 2026, including any injuries or illness preventing peak performance - Team tactics and positioning — how Ganna's team deploys resources to support or protect him versus competitors' strategic choices - Historical head-to-head performance between Ganna and named competitors (Pogacar, Evenepoel, Vauquelin, Arensman) in similar stage formats - Market liquidity and contract volume are very low ($0 24h volume on Ganna's contract), indicating high uncertainty and limited analytical consensus Contracts: - Will Tadej Pogacar win Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Tadej Pogacar — 46¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 68%) - Will Alexander Aranburu Deba win Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Alexander Aranburu Deba — 16¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 4%) - Will Filippo Ganna win Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Filippo Ganna — 94¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 4%) - Will Anthon Charmig win Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Anthon Charmig — 94¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 4%) - Will Abel Balderstone win Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Abel Balderstone — 94¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 4%) - Will Jonas Vingegaard win Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Jonas Vingegaard — 7¢ Kalshi $42 (weight 2%) - Will Romain Gregoire win Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Romain Gregoire — 3¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 2%) - Will Ben Healy win Stage 10 in the 2026 Tour de France?: Ben Healy — 4¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 2%) - ... and 6 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T01:20:51.515Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cyclingstage Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Filippo%20Ganna%20win%20Stage%201%20in%20the%202026%20Tour%20de%20France Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev