86% — Daegu Mayoral Election Winner
Leader: Choo Kyung-ho at 86% · Polymarket 86% · 2 contracts · $82K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates traders estimate an 82% chance that Choo Kyung-ho wins the Daegu mayoral election. Daegu is South Korea's third-largest city, and mayoral races carry significance for local governance and sometimes reflect broader political sentiment. The current pricing reflects Choo's apparent polling lead and organizational strength relative to rival Kim Boo-kyum. Movement in this probability would likely follow changes in public polling data, endorsements from party leadership, or developments in local issues affecting voter priorities. The resolution date depends on when Daegu holds its next mayoral election; if one is scheduled soon, market prices should converge toward the actual outcome as election day approaches. Liquidity remains moderate, with combined daily volume around $14,000 across both contracts.

Key factors:
- Choo Kyung-ho's contract trades at 83 cents versus Kim Boo-kyum's 18 cents, reflecting a significant gap in perceived viability rather than near-consensus
- Trading volume and bid-ask spreads suggest limited but active participation, making prices susceptible to revision if new polling or campaign developments emerge
- The 82% probability implies roughly 1-in-5 odds the runner-up wins, a non-negligible outcome dependent on potential campaign events or shifts in voter preference
- Resolution depends entirely on the scheduled election date; unclear timing could explain why this market has not yet compressed toward extremes
- Polymarket's two-contract structure means price movements reflect direct trader belief rather than aggregate forecasting models

Contracts:
- Daegu Mayoral Election Winner: Choo Kyung-ho — 86¢ Polymarket $23K (weight 28%)
- Daegu Mayoral Election Winner: Kim Boo-kyum — 14¢ Polymarket $59K (weight 72%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.662Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/daegu-mayoral-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Daegu%20Mayoral%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev