93% — Daejeon Mayoral Election Winner
Leader: Huh Tae-jung at 93% · Polymarket 93% · 2 contracts · $77 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:35:33 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Daejeon Mayoral Election Winner: Huh Tae-jung — 93¢ Polymarket $34 (weight 44%)
- Daejeon Mayoral Election Winner: Lee Jang-woo — 11¢ Polymarket $43 (weight 56%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:10.946Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/daejeon-mayoral-election-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Daejeon%20Mayoral%20Election%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev