13% — Will Julia Stiles win Dancing with the Stars Season 35 Kalshi 13% · 6 contracts · $39K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 20:12:03 UTC Why this matters: This represents a prediction that Julia Stiles has an 11% chance of winning Dancing with the Stars Season 35. The probability reflects her relative positioning against other celebrity contestants, with Jenna Dewan currently favored at 25% and Harry Shum Jr. at 17%. Stiles' odds would shift based on early performance metrics—judge scores, audience voting patterns, and viewer engagement in the first few weeks of competition. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty is the season's live performances and cumulative voting results as episodes air. Prediction markets typically adjust probabilities week-by-week based on actual dancing performance, audience sentiment, and betting activity from traders with relevant information. Stiles' previous acting career and public familiarity may influence baseline expectations, but on-show dance improvements and consistency matter significantly for probability movement. Key factors: - Jenna Dewan is priced at 25%, nearly 2.5x higher than Julia Stiles at 10¢, indicating markets view Dewan as a stronger favorite based on perceived dance ability or public support - Week-to-week judge scores and viewer voting results directly correlate with probability shifts; early performance episodes typically produce significant repricing across contestant contracts - Harry Shum Jr. at 17% suggests contestants with prior dance training or performance experience are priced higher, which may disadvantage Stiles depending on her baseline skill level - Trading volume of $7,195 over 24 hours on Stiles' contract indicates moderate market liquidity and active reassessment as new competition information emerges - The spread between top candidates (Dewan 25¢ to Connor Wood 3¢) shows markets are still uncertain about Season 35 outcomes, with no contestant achieving dominant probability levels Contracts: - Will Maura Higgins win Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Maura Higgins — 17¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 41%) - Will Harry Shum Jr. win Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Harry Shum Jr. — 20¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 29%) - Will Amber Glenn win Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Amber Glenn — 7¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%) - Will Ezra Frech win Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Ezra Frech — 15¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 9%) - Will Jackson Olson win Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Jackson Olson — 6¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%) - Will Jenna Dewan win Dancing with the Stars Season 35?: Jenna Dewan — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-20T19:20:49.155Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dancingwiththestars Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Julia%20Stiles%20win%20Dancing%20with%20the%20Stars%20Season%2035 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev