86% — Will DoorDash Inc. report above 1040 million total orders in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 970 million at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 7 contracts · $1 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 16:17:38 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents traders' assessment that DoorDash will report more than 1.04 billion orders in the second quarter of 2026. The 87% probability on the broader 940 million threshold suggests confidence in DoorDash's order volume reaching roughly baseline expectations, but the 9% price on the 1.04 billion contract indicates significant skepticism about reaching the higher end. Key drivers include DoorDash's historical quarterly growth rate, seasonal demand patterns in Q2, competitive pressures from other platforms, and macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer spending on delivery services. The resolution date depends on DoorDash's earnings release, typically occurring 4-6 weeks after quarter-end in July 2026, when the company reports official total orders for the period.

Key factors:
- DoorDash's Q1 2026 total order count and disclosed sequential growth trends
- Year-over-year order volume growth compared to Q2 2025 baseline
- Market share dynamics relative to competitors like Uber Eats and other delivery platforms
- Seasonal demand variations in Q2 versus full-year patterns
- Macro consumer spending indicators and discretionary spending patterns during the April-June period

Contracts:
- Will DoorDash Inc. report Above 970 million total orders in Q3 2026?: Above 970 million — 86¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 100%)
- Will DoorDash Inc. report Above 980 million total orders in Q3 2026?: Above 980 million — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will DoorDash Inc. report Above 990 million total orders in Q3 2026?: Above 990 million — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will DoorDash Inc. report Above 1000 million total orders in Q3 2026?: Above 1000 million — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will DoorDash Inc. report Above 1010 million total orders in Q3 2026?: Above 1010 million — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will DoorDash Inc. report Above 1020 million total orders in Q3 2026?: Above 1020 million — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will DoorDash Inc. report Above 1030 million total orders in Q3 2026?: Above 1030 million — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.342Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dash
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20DoorDash%20Inc.%20report%20above%201040%20million%20total%20orders%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev