71% — Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↓$145B
Leader: ↑$155B at 71% · Polymarket 71% · 8 contracts · $362 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 11:28:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market measures whether Databricks will reach a $155 billion valuation by June 30, 2026—currently priced at 47%, meaning traders see it as slightly more likely than not. Databricks' valuation hinges on two primary drivers: company performance metrics and broader enterprise software funding conditions. A 47% probability reflects meaningful uncertainty, split between optimists pricing in strong continued growth and skeptics expecting valuation pressures from higher interest rates or slower AI adoption in enterprise. The June 30 deadline is imminent and fixed; the outcome depends almost entirely on whether the company pursues or completes a funding round or strategic transaction at that valuation threshold before then, rather than on operational metrics that typically take longer to influence public market expectations.

Key factors:
- Recent funding activity and announcement timelines—any new funding round would directly signal company valuation
- Comparable enterprise software company valuations and recent public market performance in that sector
- Stated growth rates, revenue multiples, and profitability trajectory relative to peer companies
- Interest rate environment and venture/late-stage capital availability affecting late-stage company valuations
- Time remaining until June 30 deadline creates discrete binary outcome; near-term announcements by company leadership would be decisive

Contracts:
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$155B — 71¢ Polymarket $100 (weight 27%)
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$165B — 68¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$160B — 57¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↓$145B — 9¢ Polymarket $15 (weight 4%)
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$175B — 8¢ Polymarket $22 (weight 6%)
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↓$140B — 7¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 9%)
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↓$135B — 5¢ Polymarket $194 (weight 54%)
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by June 30?: ↑$200B — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/databricks-valuation-hit-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Databricks'%20valuation%20hit%20__%20by%20June%2030%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%24145B
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev