7% — Will Greg Stanton be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027 Kalshi 7% · 8 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 08:09:17 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chance that Greg Stanton, an Arizona congressman, becomes chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by early March 2027. The DCCC chair position opens periodically and involves significant responsibility for coordinating party strategy in House races. Current pricing at 7 cents suggests relatively low confidence in Stanton for this role compared to other named candidates, who are priced identically. The main drivers of this probability would be public announcements from party leadership about the selection process, endorsements from influential Democrats, and any statements from Stanton himself about his interest. The resolution hinges on either an official announcement of the next DCCC chair or the passage of the March 2 deadline. Multiple Democratic candidates appear equally weighted in the market, indicating genuine uncertainty about the selection outcome. Key factors: - No incumbent chair has been announced as being replaced or stepping down as of late August 2026 - Five Democratic congressional figures are priced identically at 7 cents, suggesting equal market assessment of their candidacy - The DCCC chair selection typically involves coordination between party leadership rather than a competitive election process - Greg Stanton has not made public statements indicating interest in or pursuit of the DCCC chair role - The resolution deadline is approximately six months away, providing limited time for campaign activity or formal announcements Contracts: - Will Ami Bera be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027?: Ami Bera — 7¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 27%) - Will Jamie Raskin be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027?: Jamie Raskin — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 25%) - Will Jason Crow be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027?: Jason Crow — 15¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 20%) - Will Greg Stanton be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027?: Greg Stanton — 7¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 12%) - Will Sharice Davids be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027?: Sharice Davids — 3¢ Kalshi $425 (weight 5%) - Will Lizzie Fletcher be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027?: Lizzie Fletcher — 7¢ Kalshi $416 (weight 4%) - Will Morgan McGarvey be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027?: Morgan McGarvey — 6¢ Kalshi $350 (weight 4%) - Will Ted Lieu be the next Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) before Mar 2, 2027?: Ted Lieu — 8¢ Kalshi $333 (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T07:21:49.086Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dcccchair Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Greg%20Stanton%20be%20the%20next%20Chair%20of%20the%20Democratic%20Congressional%20Campaign%20Committee%20(DCCC)%20before%20Mar%202%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev