27% — How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026
Leader: 0 at 27% · Kalshi 27% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects whether Donald Trump will visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. exactly once during August 2026. The 35% price for a single visit suggests traders view one visit as the most likely outcome, though the 29% probability assigned to zero visits indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether he visits at all. The near-term catalyst is the calendar itself—the month ends August 31st, so resolution depends on verifiable visit records before that date. Factors driving the current level include Trump's typical golf frequency during the summer months, any scheduled public appearances or events in the Washington, D.C. area that month, and the operational status of the club during August. The spread between single-visit (35%) and zero-visit (29%) outcomes suggests traders are split on his anticipated activity level, with smaller probabilities assigned to multiple visits.

Key factors:
- Trump's historical visitation pattern to this specific club during August in previous years
- Whether Trump has scheduled public events or campaigning activities in the D.C. area during August 2026
- The operational status and any scheduled closures or renovations at Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. during the month
- Media coverage and public records showing actual visit dates, which will provide definitive resolution data
- Comparison to his typical summer travel patterns and golf club usage across his properties

Contracts:
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026?: 0 — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026?: 2 — 24¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 2%)
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026?: 4 — 17¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 96%)
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026?: 3 — 14¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 2%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.228Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dcgolfvisitcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20times%20will%20Donald%20Trump%20visit%20Trump%20National%20Golf%20Club%20Washington%2C%20D.C.%20in%20Aug%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev