97% — Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary
Kalshi 97% · 1 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-21 10:37:29 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that Janeese Lewis George has an 80% chance of winning the D.C. Democratic mayoral primary in 2026. Lewis George currently holds the D.C. Council seat for Ward 1 and has established name recognition and an incumbent advantage in local politics. The current level reflects her perceived frontrunner status, though meaningful uncertainty remains about the final field composition, voter turnout patterns, and whether other candidates can consolidate support. The primary will likely occur in spring 2026, and key developments including candidate endorsements, fundraising reports, and polling data in the coming months will substantially shift these probabilities. The relatively tight race between Lewis George and McDuffie (18%) indicates the market views this as competitive despite the current leader's advantage.

Key factors:
- Lewis George's current D.C. Council incumbency and Ward 1 electorate base versus McDuffie's status as a councilmember from a different ward
- Official primary election date and filing deadline dates in D.C., which determine final candidate participation and timeline for campaign consolidation
- Endorsement patterns from sitting council members, labor unions, and established D.C. Democratic Party figures
- Public polling data if released, versus current reliance on market expectations and insider assessments
- Fundraising totals and spending by each candidate, which correlate with campaign infrastructure and voter outreach capacity

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary?: Janeese Lewis George — 97¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T19:20:20.888Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dcmayord
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20D.C.%20Democratic%20Mayoral%20Primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev