25% — Will Joseph Arminio be the Republican nominee for Delaware at-large congressional district Kalshi 25% · 4 contracts · $246 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-07 12:10:04 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that Joseph Arminio becomes the Republican Party's nominee for Delaware's at-large congressional seat in the 2026 election cycle. At 23%, Arminio ranks as a secondary contender behind frontrunner Earl Cooper, who commands 73% implied probability. The gap between Arminio and Cooper suggests market participants view Cooper as substantially more likely to secure the nomination based on current positioning or visibility. The main factors shaping this level include the strength of each candidate's campaign infrastructure, fundraising performance, endorsement patterns among party leadership, and any strategic decisions about whether multiple strong candidates remain in the race through the primary process. The nomination will be resolved once Delaware Republicans formally select their nominee, likely through a primary election or party convention depending on state procedures. Key factors: - Earl Cooper's commanding 73% market share suggests he is perceived as the clear frontrunner, leaving limited probability for alternative candidates including Arminio - Joseph Arminio at 23% implies he is viewed as a viable but substantially weaker second option compared to Cooper among Republican primary voters or delegates - The four-candidate field shows 73% + 7% + 7% + 5% = 92%, indicating 8% residual probability for other unnamed candidates or measurement uncertainty - Relative trading volume ($371 in 24h volume for Cooper vs. $0 for Arminio) suggests significantly more market confidence and interest in Cooper as the likely nominee - Primary election timing and campaign developments (endorsements, fundraising reports, polling data) represent key catalysts that could shift probabilities among these candidates before the formal nomination occurs Contracts: - Will Earl Cooper be the Republican nominee for Delaware's at-large congressional district?: Earl Cooper — 54¢ Kalshi $140 (weight 57%) - Will Joseph Arminio be the Republican nominee for Delaware at-large congressional district?: Joseph Arminio — 5¢ Kalshi $98 (weight 40%) - Will John J. Whalen III be the Republican nominee for Delaware at-large congressional district?: John J. Whalen III — 35¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 3%) - Will Gavin Solomon be the Republican nominee for Delaware's at-large congressional district?: Gavin Solomon — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-04T07:20:52.385Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dealr Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Joseph%20Arminio%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20Delaware%20at-large%20congressional%20district Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev