82% — What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate Leader: AIPAC at 82% · Kalshi 82% · 18 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-09 22:36:42 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing an 83% likelihood that James Fishback will mention AIPAC during The Future of Florida gubernatorial debate, compared to lower probabilities for topics like data centers (75%), teen policy (76%), property taxes (74%), and OnlyFans (42%). The high probability for AIPAC reflects either strong historical precedent that Fishback discusses this topic in debate settings, or widespread expectation based on his recent public statements and policy positions. The outcome resolves when the debate occurs and participants' remarks are documented. Movement would depend on any recent statements Fishback makes before the event that signal shifting priorities, or changes in what moderators have indicated they'll address. The divergence between the top outcomes suggests moderate confidence rather than certainty—AIPAC leads but alternatives command meaningful probability weight, indicating genuine uncertainty about debate content. Key factors: - James Fishback's recent public statements or social media activity emphasizing AIPAC-related issues versus other policy areas - The debate moderator's stated agenda and which topics are listed as focus areas for questions - Historical patterns in Fishback's previous debate appearances or public forums regarding topic frequency - Trading volume concentration ($248 24h on AIPAC versus lower volumes on alternatives) indicating whether this reflects conviction or thin-market pricing - The debate's scheduled date and any confirmed participant roster, which would affect likelihood Fishback attends and participates Contracts: - What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: AIPAC — 82¢ Kalshi $256 (weight 13%) - What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Data Center — 76¢ Kalshi $219 (weight 11%) - What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: DeSantis — 75¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 3%) - What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Property Tax — 73¢ Kalshi $130 (weight 6%) - What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: DEI / Woke — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Trump (3+ times) — 59¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%) - What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Trans / Transgender — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Teen Takeover — 55¢ Kalshi $242 (weight 12%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-02T19:20:51.031Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "82% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/debatemention Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20James%20Fishback%20say%20during%20The%20Future%20of%20Florida%20%7C%20Live%20Governor%20Debate Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev