15% — Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028 Kalshi 15% · 9 contracts · $11 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:46 UTC Why this matters: This probability estimates the likelihood that Jon Ossoff will be the first person from a specified list to announce a 2028 presidential bid before November 7, 2028. At 13%, the market reflects skepticism that the Georgia senator will jump into the race before most competitors. The probability depends heavily on Ossoff's political calculations and the timeline other major Democrats choose for their announcements. Early declarations typically signal front-runner status or strategic positioning, so candidates often delay announcing until mid-to-late 2027 to maintain flexibility. The key catalyst will be whether major Democratic figures announce candidacies in summer-fall 2027, which would set the competitive pace. Current trading volume suggests moderate market interest, with the probability held consistently low across venues, indicating consensus doubt that Ossoff moves first rather than waiting to assess the field. Key factors: - Ossoff has served as a U.S. Senator since 2021 with no prior presidential exploration or positioning relative to other potential 2028 Democratic candidates - The 13% probability implies market participants view him as unlikely to declare before November 2027, suggesting expectations that he either skips the race or announces later than first-movers - Historical precedent shows frontrunner candidates often announce in summer or fall 2027; earlier declarations by other candidates would immediately resolve this to zero or near-zero - Trading volume across contracts ($365k-$15k daily) indicates moderate but not intense market conviction; higher volume spikes would likely accompany candidate movement signals - The outcome hinges on a specific sequencing question rather than Ossoff's ultimate 2028 intentions, making this narrower and more binary than general nominee probability markets Contracts: - Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 3¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 100%) - Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Kamala Harris — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?: Gavin Newsom — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Graham Platner be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?: Graham Platner — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?: Kamala Harris — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Mitch Landrieu be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?: Mitch Landrieu — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Rahm Emanuel be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?: Rahm Emanuel — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?: Andy Beshear — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.315Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/declarepresfirstd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Jon%20Ossoff%20be%20first%20this%20list%20to%20declare%20for%202028%20United%20States%20presidential%20election%20before%20Nov%207%2C%202028 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev