88% — Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above -0.1% Leader: Above 0.0% at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 9 contracts · $244 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-02 06:33:18 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets currently assess a 94% probability that Germany's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 will exceed -0.2%, reflecting expectations of either modest growth or a contraction smaller than -0.2%. The contract pricing suggests traders believe Germany's economy will avoid severe contraction in the second quarter. The current probability reflects recent economic data, ECB policy signals, and forecasts from institutional economists. Q2 2026 GDP figures will be released in mid-August 2026, providing the definitive outcome. Downside risks include persistent weakness in manufacturing, energy costs, or geopolitical shocks; upside factors include stronger consumer demand or industrial recovery. The spread across related contracts (with outcomes at 0.0%, 0.2%, and 0.4% showing markedly lower probabilities) indicates uncertainty about whether growth will be positive versus slightly negative. Key factors: - Official Destatis Q2 2026 flash estimate, scheduled for August 2026, will determine the final outcome - Current contract pricing shows 94% confidence in growth above -0.2% but only 48% confidence in growth above 0.4%, indicating a narrow expected range - Recent German economic surveys and PMI data heading into Q2 2026 will influence probability adjustments before the release - ECB monetary policy stance and eurozone-wide demand conditions directly affect Germany's export-dependent manufacturing sector - External shocks such as energy price spikes or trade disruptions between the forecast date and August release could shift probabilities materially Contracts: - Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% — 88¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 10%) - Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4% — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2% — 60¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 82%) - Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4% — 60¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 8%) - Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2% — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6% — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 1.2%?: Above 1.2% — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Germany GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-31T07:20:51.464Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/degdpyoyf Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Germany%20GDP%20growth%20rate%20YoY%20flash%20for%20Q1%202026%20be%20above%20-0.1%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev