10% — Democratic VP Nominee 2028
Leader: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10% · Polymarket 10% · 13 contracts · $16 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:54:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 30% probability represents market participants' assessment that a particular Democratic candidate will be nominated as Vice President in 2028. The current leader appears to be a relatively obscure figure, with Ro Khanna showing the highest trading volume at 39 cents. The probability reflects early-stage uncertainty: the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee hasn't been selected, and VP choices typically occur after that decision. Key drivers include the eventual nominee's strategic calculus about geographic balance, ideological positioning, and demographic appeal. The probabilities will likely shift substantially once the Democratic primary concludes and the presidential nominee announces their running mate selection, expected in summer 2028. Currently, low trading volumes suggest limited market conviction across most candidates.

Key factors:
- The 2028 Democratic presidential nominee has not yet been determined; VP selection typically occurs only after the nominee is decided, making current VP odds highly speculative.
- Ro Khanna (39¢) leads despite representing roughly 4% implied probability, indicating thin liquidity and potentially unrepresentative pricing in a 19-way market.
- Total contract volume is modest ($220 in the top contracts over 24 hours), suggesting limited participation and potential for significant repricing with increased activity.
- Historical VP selections depend heavily on the eventual presidential nominee's identity and strategic priorities, making current individual candidate odds disconnected from actual decision-making.
- The resolution date is approximately 28 months away, providing ample time for political developments, candidate viability changes, and market reassessment.

Contracts:
- Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — 10¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 62%)
- Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Gretchen Whitmer — 10¢ Polymarket $6 (weight 38%)
- Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Gavin Newsom — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Pete Buttigieg — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Raphael Warnock — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Phil Murphy — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Kamala Harris — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Democratic VP Nominee 2028: Andy Beshear — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/democratic-vp-nominee-2028
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Democratic%20VP%20Nominee%202028
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev