56% — Denmark vs. Ukraine
Leader: Denmark at 56% · Polymarket 56% · 3 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-19 15:34:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations for a Denmark vs. Ukraine matchup, with Denmark currently priced as the stronger favorite at 56% likelihood of victory, while Ukraine is at 18% and a draw at 26%. The odds suggest Denmark holds a material advantage, though not overwhelming. Key drivers of this assessment likely include recent team form, head-to-head records, player availability, and home-field considerations if applicable. The main uncertainty revolves around tactical execution on match day and whether either team experiences unexpected personnel changes before kickoff. Resolution depends on the final match result, which will determine whether the Denmark contract settles at full value or expires worthless. Market liquidity is relatively modest across all three contracts, meaning significant new information could shift prices noticeably. The gap between Denmark and Ukraine reflects confidence in the favorite rather than certainty, leaving meaningful probability mass for an upset or stalemate.

Key factors:
- Denmark is priced at 56% on Polymarket versus Ukraine at 18%, suggesting a two-to-one confidence ratio favoring Denmark
- Ukraine draw contract at 26% indicates material expectations for a stalemate outcome, which would void both Denmark and Ukraine win contracts
- Trading volume for the Denmark contract ($35 24h vol) is substantially lower than the Ukraine contract ($790 24h vol), suggesting asymmetric trader interest
- The three-way structure means the three probabilities must sum to 100%, so any shift in draw probability directly redistributes odds between the two teams
- Home advantage, current injury reports, and recent competitive form between these specific teams would be primary factors explaining the current 56% Denmark favoritism

Contracts:
- Denmark vs. Ukraine: Denmark — 56¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 64%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine: Draw (Denmark vs. Ukraine) — 26¢ Polymarket $356 (weight 8%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine: Ukraine — 18¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 28%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-09T01:20:13.260Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/denmark-vs-ukraine
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Denmark%20vs.%20Ukraine
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev