13% — Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score
Leader: Exact Score: 1-0 at 13% · Polymarket 13% · 13 contracts · $46 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:11:55 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market is pricing a 13% probability that Denmark defeats Ukraine by exactly 1-0. The contracts reflect significant uncertainty about the match outcome, with the three most likely exact scores (1-0, 1-1, and 2-0) each trading within a narrow 12-13 cent range, indicating no strong consensus on a specific result. The probability distribution suggests that traders expect a low-scoring match, given that scorelines with 3+ goals combined represent a small portion of total market value. The match outcome depends primarily on each team's current form, squad availability, and the tactical approach each side adopts. Once the match concludes, the contract will resolve definitively based on the final score.

Key factors:
- The top three exact scorelines (1-0, 1-1, 2-0) are clustered within 1 percentage point, indicating broad uncertainty rather than strong conviction around any single outcome.
- Recent head-to-head records, current FIFA rankings, and injury status of key players would materially affect the likelihood of a 1-0 Denmark victory versus other low-scoring outcomes.
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts suggests limited recent market activity and prices that may reflect stale information rather than fresh trader assessment.
- Low-scoring exact results (1-0, 1-1, 0-1) comprise roughly 38% of total contract value, implying traders expect a defensive or tactically cautious match.
- The match date and venue, along with whether either team is playing for a specific tournament objective or has rotation concerns, would be critical variables driving final probabilities.

Contracts:
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score: Exact Score: 1-0 — 13¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score: Exact Score: 2-0 — 13¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score: Exact Score: 1-1 — 11¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score: Exact Score: 2-1 — 10¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score: Exact Score: 0-1 — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score: Exact Score: 0-0 — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score: Exact Score: Any Other Score — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - Exact Score: Exact Score: 3-0 — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 5 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-06T23:20:07.419Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/denmark-vs-ukraine-exact-score
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Denmark%20vs.%20Ukraine%20-%20Exact%20Score
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev