93% — Denmark vs. Ukraine - More Markets
Leader: O/U 0.5 at 93% · Polymarket 93% · 10 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects the odds that both Denmark and Ukraine will score in their matchup, currently priced at 49 percent based on aggregated trading activity. The probability suggests traders view a both-teams-to-score outcome as moderately likely but slightly less probable than alternative results. The level reflects typical team performance metrics and defensive capabilities—stronger defenses would lower the probability, while defensive vulnerabilities or attacking prowess would increase it. The match outcome will be determined when the fixture is played, resolving whether both teams successfully score in regular time. Key considerations include recent goal-scoring trends for each team, injury status of key attacking and defensive players, and historical head-to-head performance in similar matchups.

Key factors:
- Recent both-teams-to-score frequency in Denmark's matches versus their defensive record
- Ukraine's current attacking output and conversion efficiency relative to their opposition
- Defensive injury status for both teams, particularly among key back-line players
- Historical goals-per-game averages in direct Denmark-Ukraine encounters
- Current form and momentum in attacking play for both squads entering the fixture

Contracts:
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - More Markets: O/U 0.5 — 93¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 1%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - More Markets: O/U 1.5 — 72¢ Polymarket $77 (weight 3%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - More Markets: Both Teams to Score — 48¢ Polymarket $43 (weight 1%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - More Markets: O/U 2.5 — 46¢ Polymarket $32 (weight 1%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - More Markets: Denmark (-1.5) — 28¢ Polymarket $174 (weight 6%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - More Markets: O/U 3.5 — 25¢ Polymarket $220 (weight 8%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - More Markets: Denmark (-2.5) — 12¢ Polymarket $48 (weight 2%)
- Denmark vs. Ukraine - More Markets: O/U 4.5 — 10¢ Polymarket $771 (weight 27%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-06T23:20:07.256Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/denmark-vs-ukraine-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Denmark%20vs.%20Ukraine%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev