26% — Denver Summit FC vs. San Diego Wave FC Kalshi 26% · 3 contracts · $134 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:10:35 UTC Why this matters: This 18% probability reflects market expectations that San Diego will win the 2026 National League Championship. The significant 18-point gap between Kalshi (23%) and Polymarket (5%) suggests disagreement about San Diego's playoff viability, with Kalshi traders pricing in higher qualification odds while Polymarket remains skeptical. Market participants are evaluating whether San Diego can sustain competitive performance through the regular season and postseason. The upcoming months will clarify San Diego's trajectory as teams accumulate wins and playoff positioning becomes clearer. Resolution depends on the team's ability to reach the playoffs and subsequently advance through multiple championship rounds. Key factors: - Kalshi's 23% probability versus Polymarket's 5% reveals a substantial divergence in how markets assess San Diego's championship chances, suggesting uncertainty about underlying team performance expectations - Trading volume is concentrated on season-win thresholds (90+ and 85+ games) rather than championship odds, indicating market focus on regular-season performance as a leading indicator - The Padres' standing in the NL West race and their ability to qualify for the playoffs at all represents the primary driver—championship probability cannot materialize without postseason entry - Cross-venue probability gaps of 18 percentage points typically reflect different trader compositions and risk appetites rather than access to material new information - Historical context matters: the market's current pricing can be compared against preseason expectations and year-to-date win-loss records once sufficient games are played Contracts: - Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego — 40¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 100%) - Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:50.639Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/denver-summit-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Denver%20Summit%20FC%20vs.%20San%20Diego%20Wave%20FC Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev