26% — Denver Summit FC vs. San Diego Wave FC - More Markets
Kalshi 26% · 3 contracts · $134 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:04:56 UTC

Why this matters:
The 18% probability reflects the market's assessment that Denver Summit FC will defeat San Diego Wave FC in an upcoming match. The prediction is based on three related contracts tracking San Diego's win totals and playoff prospects for the 2026 season. The current level suggests market participants view Denver as the favored side, though the low trading volume on longer-term contracts indicates limited conviction. Resolution depends on whether San Diego can maintain competitive form through the season—their performance in remaining games determines both playoff qualification odds and season win totals. The actual match outcome will be known on the scheduled game date, while season-long projections will clarify as more games conclude and San Diego's final record becomes apparent.

Key factors:
- San Diego's current win total and remaining schedule directly influence both their playoff probability and season win projections
- The 85-win threshold (22¢) versus 90-win threshold (7¢) shows sharp probability drops, indicating where market participants see meaningful performance breakpoints
- Playoff qualification (17¢) is priced higher than 90-win achievement, suggesting the market views division/conference dynamics as relevant to playoff odds
- Trading volume remains at or near zero on multi-outcome contracts, indicating low market participation and potentially higher uncertainty bands
- Denver's roster strength, recent form, and head-to-head history against San Diego would factor into the match-specific 18% probability versus broader season projections

Contracts:
- Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers: San Diego — 40¢ Kalshi $134 (weight 100%)
- Will San Diego win at least 90 games this season?: 90+ wins — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will San Diego win at least 85 games this season?: 85+ wins — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T05:20:50.553Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/denver-summit-fc-vs-san-diego-wave-fc-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Denver%20Summit%20FC%20vs.%20San%20Diego%20Wave%20FC%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev