95% — Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026
Leader: Above 200,000 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 5 contracts · $252 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:48 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects whether U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement will conduct more than 400,000 removals during the 2026 fiscal year (October 2025 through September 2026). At 51%, the market is pricing this as a near coin-flip outcome. The current level reflects uncertainty around enforcement policy direction and resource allocation under the current administration, as removals depend on detention capacity, personnel funding, and prosecutorial priorities. The key catalyst will be the actual removal figures released by ICE in quarterly reports throughout FY2026, with the mid-year data point (around March 2026) providing early signals of whether the pace would reach the 400,000 threshold if maintained. Historical context matters: removals have ranged significantly by administration, making this threshold neither historically extreme nor trivially easy to achieve.

Key factors:
- ICE detention bed capacity and occupancy rates directly constrain removal operations and will determine physical processing capability
- Congressional appropriations for ICE operations, personnel, and immigration enforcement priorities will influence resource availability for removals
- Quarter-by-quarter removal data releases (October 2025, January 2026, April 2026, July 2026) will provide concrete evidence of current pace versus the 400,000 annual target
- Policy changes regarding prosecutorial discretion and enforcement priorities could materially shift removal operations above or below historical trends
- State-level cooperation agreements and cooperation from local jurisdictions affect ICE's ability to access detained individuals for removal proceedings

Contracts:
- Will the number of ICE removals be above 200000 in FY2026?: Above 200,000 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of ICE removals be above 300000 in FY2026?: Above 300,000 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?: Above 400,000 — 88¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 7%)
- Will the number of ICE removals be above 500000 in FY2026?: Above 500,000 — 33¢ Kalshi $130 (weight 52%)
- Will the number of ICE removals be above 600000 in FY2026?: Above 600,000 — 24¢ Kalshi $105 (weight 42%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.295Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/deportations
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20number%20of%20ICE%20removals%20be%20above%20400000%20in%20FY2026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev