96% — Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026
Leader: Above 400,000 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 2 contracts · $5 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 06:32:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will remove at least 400,000 individuals in fiscal year 2026, currently priced at 97% likelihood. The high confidence is driven by recent removal trends and stated enforcement priorities. The main factors pulling this estimate upward are continuation of current policy enforcement levels and available enforcement resources; downward pressure could come from legal challenges, resource constraints, or policy shifts. The fiscal year ends September 30, 2026, meaning the final FY2026 removal count will be published by ICE within weeks of that date, providing definitive resolution. The subsidiary markets show traders assign 79% odds to exceeding 450,000 removals and only 24% to exceeding 500,000, suggesting confidence in the 400,000 threshold but uncertainty about higher levels.

Key factors:
- ICE removal data for FY2024 and FY2025 will establish baseline trends; FY2024 reported approximately 125,000 deportations with broader enforcement actions
- Current monthly removal pace relative to the 400,000 annualized target; halfway through FY2026 (August 10), actual removals to date must be tracked against proportional benchmarks
- Policy and legal environment affecting enforcement authority; court injunctions or legislative changes could materially reduce removal capacity
- Resource allocation and staffing levels within ICE; budget constraints or personnel limitations directly constrain operational removal volumes
- Final FY2026 removal statistics will be officially published by ICE in October 2026, providing binary resolution

Contracts:
- Will the number of ICE removals be above 400000 in FY2026?: Above 400,000 — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of ICE removals be above 450000 in FY2026?: Above 450,000 — 7¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.247Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/deportations
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20number%20of%20ICE%20removals%20be%20above%20400000%20in%20FY2026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev