35% — Rostock vs Stuttgart
Kalshi 35% · 20 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 06:03:13 UTC

Why this matters:
This 4% probability reflects market expectations that Rostock will defeat Stuttgart in an upcoming match. The low odds suggest Stuttgart is heavily favored, likely due to relative league position, recent form, or squad quality differences. Key drivers of this probability include Stuttgart's historical performance advantage and current standings, while factors that could shift the market would be significant roster changes, recent injuries to Stuttgart's key players, or Rostock demonstrating unexpected form improvement. The match outcome will be determined when the game is played, which serves as the resolution event for this contract.

Key factors:
- Stuttgart's league position and historical head-to-head record against Rostock
- Current season performance metrics and recent match results for both squads
- Injury status of key players, particularly for Stuttgart
- Rostock's home-field advantage if applicable
- Market pricing across multiple contracts suggesting consensus on Stuttgart as the stronger side

Contracts:
- Rhynern vs Dresden: Dresden To Advance: Dresden advances — 84¢ Kalshi $639 (weight 24%)
- Bahlinger SC vs Magdeburg: Magdeburg To Advance: Magdeburg advances — 69¢ Kalshi $522 (weight 20%)
- Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn: Paderborn To Advance: Paderborn advances — 84¢ Kalshi $521 (weight 20%)
- Hemelingen vs Hannover: Hannover To Advance: Hannover advances — 84¢ Kalshi $521 (weight 20%)
- Jeddeloh II vs Heidenheim: Heidenheim To Advance: Heidenheim advances — 13¢ Kalshi $406 (weight 15%)
- St. Tonis vs Frankfurt: Frankfurt To Advance: Frankfurt advances — 66¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 1%)
- Krieschow vs Mainz: Mainz To Advance: Mainz advances — 70¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%)
- Schott Mainz vs M´gladbach: M´gladbach To Advance: M´gladbach advances — 68¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T05:20:48.982Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "35% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dfbpokaladvance
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Rostock%20vs%20Stuttgart
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev