27% — Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Winner Kalshi 27% · 20 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 04:33:44 UTC Why this matters: This market represents the odds that Bayer Leverkusen will defeat FC Bayern Munich in an upcoming match. The 5% probability reflects Bayern's historical dominance in German football, suggesting traders assess Leverkusen as a significant underdog. The market is driven by two primary considerations: Bayern's superior squad quality, recent form, and head-to-head record against Leverkusen, which would sustain low odds for the challenger; conversely, Leverkusen's recent competitive improvements and any Bayern injuries or poor form preceding the match could shift probability upward. Resolution depends on the scheduled match result, which will determine whether Leverkusen pulls off a major upset or falls to the favorite as expected. Key factors: - Bayern Munich's 7+ year pattern of German league dominance and superior individual player quality relative to Leverkusen - Recent head-to-head performance between the clubs in league and cup competitions over the past 2-3 seasons - Injury status of key Bayern players (defenders, midfielders, or forwards) in the days immediately before the match - Leverkusen's current win streak or recent performance trajectory relative to their season average - Match context such as competition stage (league vs. cup), location (home/away), and Bayern's remaining fixture load that could affect rotation or intensity Contracts: - Hemelingen vs Hannover Winner?: Reg Time: Hannover — 68¢ Kalshi $586 (weight 42%) - St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner?: Reg Time: Frankfurt — 11¢ Kalshi $293 (weight 21%) - Krieschow vs Mainz Winner?: Reg Time: Mainz — 87¢ Kalshi $244 (weight 17%) - Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn Winner?: Reg Time: Paderborn — 72¢ Kalshi $68 (weight 5%) - St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner?: Reg Time: Tie — 3¢ Kalshi $68 (weight 5%) - Bahlinger SC vs Magdeburg Winner?: Reg Time: Magdeburg — 78¢ Kalshi $57 (weight 4%) - St. Tonis vs Frankfurt Winner?: Reg Time: St. Tonis — 5¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 2%) - Schott Mainz vs M´gladbach Winner?: Reg Time: M´gladbach — 71¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 2%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T04:20:49.290Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dfbpokalgame Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Leverkusen%20vs%20Bayern%20Munich%20Winner Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev