12% — Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress Leader: 230-233 at 12% · Kalshi 12% · 12 contracts · $733 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 00:53:39 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract settles based on the Democratic party's final House seat count in the 120th Congress, with an 11% probability assigned to the 230-233 range. This specific band represents one outcome among a wider distribution: contracts show material probability mass in ranges both below (226-229 at 10%) and above (234-237 at 10%), with significant tail risk toward either 210 seats or above 249. The narrow 11% probability reflects that while 230-233 is plausible, it is not a central expectation. The market appears to price higher uncertainty rather than consensus, as the leader and several runners-up all cluster around 8-12 cents. Key drivers include 2026 midterm performance against the White House party, redistricting effects that persist from 2022, and turnout dynamics in specific swing districts. The resolution will occur after November 2026 general election results are finalized and certified. Key factors: - The 230-233 range represents roughly 48-49% of current House seats, implying modestly above the historical average for opposition parties in midterm elections - Market prices show roughly equal probability mass across multiple adjacent ranges (226-237 seats span 22% combined), suggesting high uncertainty about the exact outcome - Significant tail risk exists with 8% probability for Democratic totals below 210 seats and 10% for above 249 seats, indicating the market is pricing material variance around central scenarios - The 120th Congress begins in January 2027; resolution depends on November 2026 election results and subsequent certification without major vacancies or special elections before that date - Trading volume concentrates in the 230-233 contract ($377 daily volume), while adjacent ranges show notably lower volume, suggesting either high confidence in this band or liquidity concentration Contracts: - Will the Democratic party win 230-233 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 230-233 — 12¢ Kalshi $142 (weight 19%) - Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 226-229 — 10¢ Kalshi $257 (weight 35%) - Will the Democratic party win 238-241 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 238-241 — 10¢ Kalshi $102 (weight 14%) - Will the Democratic party win 234-237 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 234-237 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 249 — 9¢ Kalshi $37 (weight 5%) - Will the Democratic party win 222-225 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 222-225 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Democratic party win below 210 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Below 210 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the Democratic party win 210-213 House seats in the 120th Congress?: 210-213 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:51.869Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dhouseseats Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Democratic%20party%20win%20230-233%20House%20seats%20in%20the%20120th%20Congress Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev