89% — Will the Democratic party hold more than 250 House seats in the 120th Congress
Leader: Above 211 at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 14 contracts · $39 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 06:41:42 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates an 89% chance that Democrats will hold at least 211 House seats in the 120th Congress (which begins January 2027), but only an 8% chance they'll exceed 250 seats. The probability reflects expectations about the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats currently control 213 seats. The 89% figure suggests markets expect Democrats to maintain or gain a modest number of seats, while the sharp drop-off at 250 reflects skepticism about a significant expansion. Key drivers include historical midterm patterns (the party holding the presidency typically loses seats), current redistricting effects, and generic ballot polling. Resolution occurs after November 5, 2026 election results are certified and the new Congress is sworn in January 2027. Market confidence in the 211+ threshold versus uncertainty above 250 reflects uncertainty about both overall national trends and individual district competitiveness.

Key factors:
- Generic ballot polling showing Democratic vs Republican support as of mid-2026
- Historical midterm losses for the party holding the presidency (Democrats held 213 seats entering 2026)
- State-by-state redistricting outcomes and their effect on Democratic-leaning districts
- Candidate quality and fundraising disparities in competitive districts targeted by both parties
- Turnout and engagement levels in 2026 compared to recent election cycles

Contracts:
- Will the Democratic party hold more than 211 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 211 — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Democratic party hold more than 214 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 214 — 83¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 21%)
- Will the Democratic party hold more than 217 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 217 — 77¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 6%)
- Will the Democratic party hold more than 220 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 220 — 70¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 3%)
- Will the Democratic party hold more than 223 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 223 — 63¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Democratic party hold more than 226 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 226 — 58¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Democratic party hold more than 229 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 229 — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the Democratic party hold more than 232 House seats in the 120th Congress?: Above 232 — 40¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:49.996Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dhouseseatsdir
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Democratic%20party%20hold%20more%20than%20250%20House%20seats%20in%20the%20120th%20Congress
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev