31% — Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for FY2026 become law before May 1, 2026 Kalshi 31% · 19 contracts · $116K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 00:30:39 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates the likelihood that Congress will pass legislation providing at least $1 billion in appropriations to U.S. Customs and Border Protection for fiscal year 2026 before May 1, 2026. The 31% probability reflects that such funding has already been determined or allocated earlier in the fiscal year, which began October 1, 2025. The main driver of this low probability is timing: most appropriations bills are typically passed during the previous fiscal year or in early months of the current one. By July 2026, the deadline date of May 1 has already passed, making this a historical question rather than a forward-looking one. The key factors are whether appropriations were actually enacted before May 1, 2026, and whether the amount met the $1 billion threshold specified in the contract. Key factors: - Whether any CBP appropriations legislation passed Congress between October 1, 2025 and May 1, 2026 - Whether final enacted appropriations for CBP in FY2026 met or exceeded the $1 billion threshold - The status of omnibus or continuing appropriations bills that would have covered this period - Congressional budget negotiations and any delays or conflicts that may have postponed appropriations passage - The distinction between appropriations authority versus actual spending allocations in enacted legislation Contracts: - Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 10¢ Kalshi $116K (weight 100%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 7 percentage points?: Republicans, 7+ pts — 15¢ Kalshi $130 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 6 percentage points?: Democrats, 6+ pts — 64¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 1+ pts — 55¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 30 percentage points?: Republicans, 30+ pts — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Republicans, 4+ pts — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T00:20:51.033Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dhscomponent Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20appropriating%20at%20least%20%241%20billion%20to%20U.S.%20Customs%20and%20Border%20Protection%20(CBP)%20for%20FY2026%20become%20law%20before%20May%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev