31% — Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for FY2026 become law before May 1, 2026 Kalshi 31% · 19 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:57 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation allocating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection in fiscal year 2026 before May 1, 2026. The 16% probability suggests this outcome is considered unlikely at this point in the year. The low probability likely reflects that we are already three months into the fiscal year, which began October 1, 2025, leaving limited time for legislative action. Major spending bills typically pass during specific windows—often in advance of fiscal deadlines or as part of broader appropriations packages. The primary driver of the current level is procedural timing; funding legislation must navigate committee consideration, floor debate, and presidential approval within a compressed timeframe. A significant catalyst would be Congress scheduling markup or floor votes on appropriations bills in May, or broader spending legislation being introduced that includes border security funding. Key factors: - The fiscal year began October 1, 2025, meaning the May 1 deadline leaves only 7 months for legislative action, a tight window for appropriations bills - Appropriations historically pass as omnibus packages combining multiple agencies rather than standalone bills, making the probability dependent on broader budget negotiations - Congressional schedule and committee activity in May 2026 will indicate whether border funding is a priority item being actively moved toward passage - Any prior passage of spending bills in FY2026 without CBP funding would reduce the likelihood of a last-minute $1B+ appropriation before May 1 - The political composition of Congress and executive preferences regarding border security funding influence whether such legislation receives floor time and support Contracts: - Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 52%) - Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 45%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Maine be at least 7 percentage points?: Republicans, 7+ pts — 20¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 2%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 2 percentage points?: Democrats, 2+ pts — 39¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Democrats, 4+ pts — 27¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Wyoming be at least 30 percentage points?: Republicans, 30+ pts — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Republicans, 4+ pts — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.714Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dhscomponent Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20appropriating%20at%20least%20%241%20billion%20to%20U.S.%20Customs%20and%20Border%20Protection%20(CBP)%20for%20FY2026%20become%20law%20before%20May%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev