31% — Will legislation appropriating at least $1 billion to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for FY2026 become law before May 1, 2026 Kalshi 31% · 17 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 15:19:05 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates the likelihood that Congress will pass legislation providing at least $1 billion in appropriations to U.S. Customs and Border Protection for fiscal year 2026 before May 1, 2026. The 31% probability reflects that such funding has already been determined or allocated earlier in the fiscal year, which began October 1, 2025. The main driver of this low probability is timing: most appropriations bills are typically passed during the previous fiscal year or in early months of the current one. By July 2026, the deadline date of May 1 has already passed, making this a historical question rather than a forward-looking one. The key factors are whether appropriations were actually enacted before May 1, 2026, and whether the amount met the $1 billion threshold specified in the contract. Key factors: - Whether any CBP appropriations legislation passed Congress between October 1, 2025 and May 1, 2026 - Whether final enacted appropriations for CBP in FY2026 met or exceeded the $1 billion threshold - The status of omnibus or continuing appropriations bills that would have covered this period - Congressional budget negotiations and any delays or conflicts that may have postponed appropriations passage - The distinction between appropriations authority versus actual spending allocations in enacted legislation Contracts: - Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 68%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 1 percentage points?: Ken Paxton, 1+ pts — 38¢ Kalshi $953 (weight 22%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be at least 9 percentage points?: Cooper, 9+ pts — 36¢ Kalshi $257 (weight 6%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Iowa be at least 2 percentage points?: Turek, 2+ pts — 25¢ Kalshi $160 (weight 4%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 6 percentage points?: Brown, 6+ pts — 19¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 1%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Minnesota be at least 11 percentage points?: Flanagan, 11+ pts — 24¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 2 percentage points?: Brown, 2+ pts — 41¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Ohio be at least 4 percentage points?: Brown, 4+ pts — 18¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-22T14:20:49.721Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dhscomponent Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20appropriating%20at%20least%20%241%20billion%20to%20U.S.%20Customs%20and%20Border%20Protection%20(CBP)%20for%20FY2026%20become%20law%20before%20May%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev