91% — Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before May 15, 2026 Leader: Before Jul 1, 2026 at 91% · Kalshi 91% · 19 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:55 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This question asks whether Congress will pass legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security with an effective date of 12:01 AM ET the day after the bill becomes law, before May 15, 2026. At 85%, the market reflects high confidence this will occur. The timing is driven by Congress's regular appropriations deadlines and the mandatory nature of DHS funding. The main uncertainty centers on whether lawmakers can reach agreement on funding levels and policy riders before the May 15 deadline, or whether they extend existing funding through a continuing resolution instead. The key catalyst is the congressional budget deadline itself, typically mid-May. Passage depends on whether appropriators prioritize DHS funding separately versus bundling it with other agencies, and whether partisan disagreements over immigration enforcement or other DHS functions create obstacles. Key factors: - Congress has historically passed most appropriations bills before fiscal year deadlines, though continuing resolutions remain common in divided governments - DHS funding is typically separated as a distinct appropriations category, suggesting dedicated legislative focus rather than being packaged with unrelated legislation - The May 15 deadline is approximately 12 days away, providing a compressed window for legislative action that either enables urgent passage or forces a temporary funding extension - Current divided government control and active policy disputes over immigration enforcement and border operations could delay agreement on DHS-specific funding levels and conditions - Market pricing at 85% indicates traders assess routine appropriations passage as likely but not certain, pricing in realistic failure scenarios around legislative gridlock or strategic delays Contracts: - Will legislation that funds ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) become law before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 91¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 22%) - Will legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Housing for the 21st Century Act — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that removes Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the line of succession to the British throne become law in United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes — 64¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?: DEFIANCE Act — 46¢ Kalshi $93 (weight 1%) - Will legislation that mandates expanded adoption of ADS-B “Out” aircraft tracking technology become law before Jan 1, 2027?: ROTOR Act — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Export-control chip security — 27¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 1%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.825Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dhsfund Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%2C%20upon%20becoming%20law%2C%20results%20in%20the%20Department%20of%20Homeland%20Security%20being%20funded%20at%2012%3A01%20AM%20ET%20the%20calendar%20day%20after%20enactment%20become%20law%20before%20May%2015%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev