26% — Will legislation that, upon becoming law, results in the Department of Homeland Security being funded at 12:01 AM ET the calendar day after enactment become law before May 15, 2026 Leader: Export-control chip security at 26% · Kalshi 26% · 10 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 15:24:08 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes. Why this matters: This market measures whether Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor will be legislatively removed from the British line of succession before January 1, 2027. At 55%, traders view passage as more likely than not but uncertain. The probability reflects the political feasibility of pursuing such legislation in the UK Parliament, balanced against the question of whether there is sufficient political will to advance it. Key dynamics include public opinion on the royal family, parliamentary priorities, and whether recent events create momentum for constitutional change. The main catalyst would be significant political developments or parliamentary action on related succession matters before year-end 2026. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited market participation and potentially wider uncertainty bounds than the headline price indicates. Key factors: - UK Parliament has not recently prioritized legislation altering line of succession; such bills face procedural and political obstacles requiring substantial support - Public sentiment regarding Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor and his removal specifically would need to translate into legislative action by December 31, 2026 - No scheduled parliamentary vote or formal bill introduction currently reported would indicate imminent floor consideration - The broader pattern of legislative activity on royal prerogatives and constitutional matters suggests this remains a lower-priority reform relative to other UK governance issues - Trading volume of $0 in 24 hours indicates minimal market conviction, suggesting the 55% price may not reflect deep analyst consensus Contracts: - Will legislation that requires location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Export-control chip security — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that removes Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the line of succession to the British throne become law in United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) — 6¢ Kalshi $226 (weight 7%) - Will legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?: Yes — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that authorizes funding for construction of a presidential ballroom become law before Jan 1, 2027?: White House ballroom funding — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 93%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T15:20:49.828Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/dhsfund Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%2C%20upon%20becoming%20law%2C%20results%20in%20the%20Department%20of%20Homeland%20Security%20being%20funded%20at%2012%3A01%20AM%20ET%20the%20calendar%20day%20after%20enactment%20become%20law%20before%20May%2015%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev