50% — Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-05-01T14:00:00.000Z
Leader: Before September 1, 2026 at 50% · Kalshi 50% · 3 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 11:12:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 41% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel, Cuba's president, will leave office before May 1, 2026—a date that has now passed. The contract appears to reflect historical uncertainty about political transitions in Cuba, where leadership changes have been rare but significant when they occur. The probability level suggests markets assign meaningful but minority odds to an unexpected departure, whether through health issues, political crisis, or institutional change. Key drivers would include Díaz-Canel's age and reported health status, domestic economic conditions, and any signs of internal party conflict. The resolution of this contract depends on verifiable confirmation of a leadership transition, which would require either official Cuban government statements or widely documented evidence of a change in executive authority.

Key factors:
- Díaz-Canel's current health status and age (born 1960), which affects succession risk from natural causes
- Cuba's economic conditions and social stability, which could trigger political instability or forced transitions
- Evidence of internal power struggles within Cuba's government or Communist Party leadership
- International diplomatic developments or sanctions changes that might alter regime stability
- Verifiable public documentation or official statements confirming any change in executive authority

Contracts:
- Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?: Before September 1, 2026 — 50¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 2%)
- Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z?: Before August 1, 2026 — 32¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 7%)
- Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-07-01T14:00:00.000Z?: Before July 1, 2026 — 12¢ Kalshi $938 (weight 91%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T10:20:09.558Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/diazout-mdc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Miguel%20D%C3%ADaz-Canel%20leave%20office%20before%202026-05-01T14%3A00%3A00.000Z
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev