90% — Will Walt Disney Company (The) report Above 0% domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026 Leader: Above -3% at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 7 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 19:22:38 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: This market reflects a 97% probability that Walt Disney's domestic parks attendance will grow year-over-year in fiscal 2026, with most traders clustering around modest positive growth (0-1%) rather than stronger gains. The high confidence rests partly on Disney's historical attendance recovery post-pandemic, but the narrow positive range suggests traders expect only marginal expansion rather than robust volume increases. Key uncertainties include consumer spending patterns, theme park pricing strategy, and competitive pressures from other entertainment venues. Disney will officially report fiscal 2026 results in November 2026, providing the definitive attendance figures that resolve this contract. Until then, quarterly earnings reports and management commentary on domestic park traffic will offer incremental signals about whether year-over-year attendance trends remain positive. Key factors: - Disney's actual reported fiscal 2026 domestic park attendance growth rate must exceed 0% year-over-year to resolve "Above 0%" contracts; even flat attendance (0.0%) would fail this threshold - The probability structure shows traders view 1% growth as the most likely outcome (25¢ on 'Above 1%'), suggesting consensus expects modest rather than strong attendance expansion - Pricing drops sharply for higher thresholds (15¢ for Above 2%, 5¢ for Above 3%), indicating markets assign low probability to robust growth despite pandemic recovery trends - Q3 and Q4 2026 earnings calls will provide interim attendance data that could shift probabilities before the final fiscal 2026 tally in November 2026 - Disney's pricing decisions, operational capacity, and macroeconomic consumer spending trends between now and year-end will materially influence whether domestic park attendance reaches even modest positive growth Contracts: - Will Walt Disney Company (The) report Above -3% domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026?: Above -3% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Walt Disney Company (The) report Above -2% domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026?: Above -2% — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Walt Disney Company (The) report Above -1% domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026?: Above -1% — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Walt Disney Company (The) report Above 0% domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 0% — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Walt Disney Company (The) report Above 1% domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 1% — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Walt Disney Company (The) report Above 2% domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 2% — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) - Will Walt Disney Company (The) report Above 3% domestic parks attendance growth in fiscal 2026?: Above 3% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 14%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T19:20:50.392Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/disa Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Walt%20Disney%20Company%20(The)%20report%20Above%200%25%20domestic%20parks%20attendance%20growth%20in%20fiscal%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev