42% — Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 42% · Kalshi 42% · 4 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 16:08:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectation that Donald Trump will make a public criticism of Kevin Warsh before December 1, 2026. The 34% price suggests traders view it as unlikely but meaningful. The current assessment likely reflects Trump's public communication patterns, his relationship with Warsh, and Warsh's current role or visibility. Key drivers include Trump's propensity for public criticism of administration members and policy figures, and whether Warsh takes policy positions that conflict with Trump's stated priorities. The market assigns lower probability to criticism occurring before October 1 (9%) versus November 1 (21%), suggesting traders expect any criticism would occur later in the fall if it happens at all. Resolution will depend on Trump's actual public statements—speeches, social media posts, or media appearances—over the next 2.5 months.

Key factors:
- Trump's historical frequency of public criticism toward administration officials, advisors, and policy figures outside his immediate circle
- Warsh's current or anticipated policy positions and whether they diverge from Trump's publicly stated positions on inflation, interest rates, or fiscal policy
- Warsh's public visibility and proximity to Trump during the September-December 2026 period
- The definition of 'public criticism' and whether it requires direct name-calling or includes any negative comments about decisions or positions associated with Warsh
- Market pricing differences across timeframes (9% before Oct 1 vs. 21% before Nov 1 vs. 34% before Dec 1) indicating expectations about timing concentration

Contracts:
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Jan 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 42¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 44%)
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 28¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 19%)
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 18¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 17%)
- Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 20%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-21T15:20:51.591Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/djtattackwarsh-26sep
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20publicly%20criticize%20Kevin%20Warsh%20before%20Nov%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev